CIF Before the Senate.

The hearing

Date
2 February 2017
Committee
Standing Senate Committee on Social Affairs, Science and Technology
Study
Robotics, 3D printing and artificial intelligence in healthcare
Witness
Abishur Prakash, Geopolitical Futurist, Center for Innovating the Future
The colonnade of a parliamentary building

Foresight meets reality.

We revisit the recommendations, technologies and forecasts discussed in our 2017 Senate testimony, alongside the evidence available in 2026. Each comparison shows what has taken shape, what is only partly solved and what remains open. Follow the sources to see how we reached each conclusion.

Automation risk and Canadian jobs

What we said in 2017

We cited studies putting 42 percent of Canadian jobs at risk of automation. We discussed a scenario involving millions of job losses over 15–20 years, while acknowledging that automation could also create new jobs.

Where things stand in 2026

AI use at work is documented; the scale of job displacement remains unresolved.

In March 2026, 35.9 percent of workers aged 15–69 in Canada’s provinces reported using generative AI in their main job or business during the previous year. This establishes workplace adoption. It does not count jobs eliminated by AI.

The Brookfield Institute’s 2016 estimate concerned exposure to automation and explicitly allowed for occupations to be restructured or retained. The 15–20-year horizon discussed at the hearing runs to 2032–2037. The evidence here supports preparing for changes to work; it does not establish that 42 percent of Canadian jobs have disappeared or will disappear.

A Canadian robotics strategy

What we said in 2017

We recommended a comprehensive Canadian robotics strategy covering healthcare, economic diversification, social effects and foreign policy.

Where things stand in 2026

The recommendation is partly reflected in federal policy.

Canada’s 2026 AI for All strategy names manufacturing and robotics as a priority sector. It also addresses healthcare, workforce impacts and international cooperation. These priorities overlap with the areas we raised. Inclusion in a strategy establishes a policy commitment; delivery and results still need to be assessed.

Robotics as a service in hospitals

What we said in 2017

We expected hospitals to gain more access to robots through recurring service payments, reducing the need to purchase robots upfront.

Where things stand in 2026

The service model is now offered commercially.

Diligent Robotics offers its Moxi hospital robot through a robot-as-a-service model. This is a concrete example of the payment model discussed in 2017. The supplier’s offering supports that direction of development, although it does not establish the model’s share of the hospital robotics market.

Robots handling hospital deliveries

What we said in 2017

We described hospital robots delivering medicine and meals, carrying away dishes and changing sheets.

Where things stand in 2026

Hospital delivery is documented; changing bedsheets is unverified.

UCSF’s current laboratory instructions describe TUG robots transporting specimens. Its 2015 account also documented deliveries of food, linens and medication. Those sources establish a transport role. Delivering linens does not verify the bedside sheet-changing function described in the testimony.

Phone-connected biosensors

What we said in 2017

We described smartphones communicating with biosensors attached to patients, allowing more people to be monitored at home at lower cost.

Where things stand in 2026

The direction is supported by a cleared monitoring device.

In 2024, the US FDA cleared Dexcom Stelo, a wearable glucose sensor paired with a smartphone or other smart device. The clearance covers adults who do not use insulin and excludes people with problematic hypoglycaemia. This is a specific example of phone-connected monitoring; it does not establish the wider healthcare savings discussed in 2017.

AI assessment of skin lesions

What we said in 2017

We described AI identifying skin disease from images and a future in which people could use a smartphone to check a rash without first visiting a clinic.

Where things stand in 2026

Partly realised through supervised clinical services.

NICE guidance updated in 2026 permits DERM to assess and triage skin lesions in a specified NHS referral pathway while more evidence is collected. Safety measures include a healthcare professional checking assessments of lesions in black or brown skin. This supports clinical use of AI image assessment. It does not establish the broader vision of independent diagnosis by any smartphone.

Watson and agreement with doctors

What we said in 2017

We reported that Watson prescribed the same treatment as doctors in 99 percent of roughly 1,000 cases and identified additional options. We also described AI as being in its infancy.

Where things stand in 2026

The study identified potential treatment options; it did not measure patient benefit.

UNC research published in November 2017 compared Watson for Genomics with a molecular tumour board on previously analysed cancer cases. It identified potentially actionable genomic findings and clinical-trial options. This supports the use of computing to help clinicians review options. The study did not test whether prescribing those options improved patient outcomes, and treatment agreement should not be read as diagnostic accuracy.

Detecting epidemics from phone audio

What we said in 2017

We proposed using coughing and sneezing detected by phones to warn health services about an emerging neighbourhood epidemic.

Where things stand in 2026

The neighbourhood warning proposal remains unverified in this review.

A 2024 study analysed respiratory audio from 67,842 people with linked COVID-19 test results. Performance weakened after accounting for factors such as symptoms and recruitment bias; in simulated practical settings, audio classifiers did no better than symptom-based screening. That is evidence about individual COVID-19 screening. The study did not test whether neighbourhood audio patterns could provide useful early warning of an outbreak.

Automation in radiology and pathology

What we said in 2017

We cited a report attributed to Harvard suggesting pathology work, and possibly radiology work, could be automated within 15–20 years. We also described continued human oversight.

Where things stand in 2026

Clinical AI has advanced; the longer-term forecast remains open.

In 2026, the American College of Radiology issued guidance for using and monitoring AI in clinical imaging. The College of American Pathologists describes AI supporting sample analysis while maintaining pathologists’ responsibility for diagnosis and care. These developments support the direction toward AI-assisted work with human oversight.

The 15–20-year window runs to 2032–2037. Adoption of individual tools does not settle how much of either profession’s work will be automated by then. The Harvard report was not identified by title in the hearing, and its underlying analysis remains unverified here.

Canada’s industrial robot adoption

Industrial robot density in 2024: Canada 241, world average 132 and Republic of Korea 1,220 operational robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees.
International Federation of Robotics · Robot density8 April 2026; data for 2024

Figures published by the International Federation of Robotics in 2026 put Canada at 241 operational industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees in 2024. That was above the world average of 132 and below the United States at 307 and the Republic of Korea at 1,220.

This comparison describes the scale of factory automation relative to manufacturing employment. It provides context for the robotics policy discussion; it does not measure jobs displaced, hospital robotics or the effect of a particular government strategy.

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